Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said the FY25 Budget demonstrated the government's ongoing commitment to reducing fiscal deficit and ensured policy continuity during the NDA government's new term. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday presented the first Budget of the Modi 3.0 government in which she revised the deficit target for current fiscal lower to 4.9 per cent of the GDP, from 5.1 per cent projected in the interim Budget.
'It has also outlived its initial purpose of reducing physical gold imports.'
Trading sentiment in the equity market this week will be guided by global trends, foreign fund movement, macroeconomic data announcements and RBI's interest rate decision, analysts said. The monthly auto sales data announcement would also be tracked by investors this week.
Dr Nagesh Kumar, one of the three new MPC members, wanted the MPC to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
'If the BJP detoxifies the nuclear liability law, it will bring economic, environmental and, most of all, strategic benefits.' 'Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope that this Budget promise is met soon -- ideally, before Mr Modi heads to his first meeting with Trump 2.0,' observes Shekhar Gupta.
Backing embattled Adani Group, rating agency CRISIL Ratings on Friday said the conglomerate has sufficient liquidity and operational cash flows to meet debt obligations and committed capex and that there has been no negative actions so far by lenders and investors following the US indictment of group founder chairman. The Adani Group, which has the flexibility to reduce certain discretionary capital expenditure (capex) depending on developments in financial markets and future capital availability, has a healthy Ebitda and cash balance that reduces its dependence on external debt to sustain operations, it said in a bulletin.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday projected general government debt to stabilise above 80 per cent of GDP over the next three years, down from 89.3 per cent in 2020-21. "General government interest payments to fall to around 24 per cent of general government revenue over the next two years from over 28 per cent in fiscal 2020-21, although this remains much higher than the median 8.7 per cent recorded by Baa-rated peers," Moody's Ratings associate managing director Gene Fang said in a post-Budget reaction.
Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection. The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.
Recognising job creation for the youth as the foremost challenge for the economy, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday announced a comprehensive Prime Minister's package to facilitate the employment and skilling of 41 million youth with a central outlay of Rs 2 trillion over the next five-year period. The package will consist of five schemes and initiatives - three focused on jobs and two on skilling.
S&P Global Ratings on Friday said it will watch the fiscal numbers for the next 1-2 years, besides pro-growth policies of the new government, before deciding on India's sovereign rating upgrade. S&P, which earlier this week upgraded India's outlook to positive while retaining the sovereign rating at BBB-, expects the new government to continue with pro-growth policies, infrastructure investment and commitment to fiscal consolidation.
Economists at the country's largest lender SBI on Wednesday said they see Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5 per cent in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and if it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7 per cent. It can be noted that the April-June period saw the real GDP expanding by 6.7 per cent, the lowest in 15 quarters.
The Indian economy is recovering from the slowdown in momentum witnessed in the September quarter, driven by strong festival activity and a sustained upswing in rural demand, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin released on Tuesday. An article on the 'State of the Economy' in the December bulletin noted that the global economy continues to exhibit resilience with steady growth and moderating inflation.
The finance minister, in her Budget speech, should focus more on what she is directly responsible for, rather than on programmes where her role is largely supportive, notes Nitin Desai.
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday upped inflation projection for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the upside risk to inflation persists and the recent spike in tomato prices would fuel food inflation. Also, high global crude oil prices would add to the upside pressure on inflation. The upward revision in inflation projection comes as domestic retail inflation has remained above RBI's comfort level of 6 per cent for four months in a row, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine war which has impacted the prices of commodities across the globe.
The Budget 2025-26 meets the expectations of fiscal consolidation, maintaining capital expenditure, and boosting consumption through tax cuts.
Any reduction in the customs duty on smartphone parts in the forthcoming budget will harm India's developing component ecosystem, discourage investment, increase imports, and make local firms uncompetitive, potentially resulting in job losses, think tank GTRI said on Tuesday. India's smartphone industry is a 'Make in India' success story, with 2023-24 production reaching $49.2 billion and exports at $15.6 billion, making smartphones the fourth-largest export after diesel, aviation fuel, and polished diamonds.
'Maharashtra is virtually in a debt trap.'
'The intensity and frequency of heatwaves will be much higher than in previous years over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.'
On the back of sound macroeconomic policies and softer commodity prices, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures, said the Reserve Bank's annual report released on Tuesday. It, however, added that slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility following new stress events in the global financial system could pose downside risks to growth. "On the back of sound macroeconomic policies, softer commodity prices, a robust financial sector, a healthy corporate sector, continued fiscal policy thrust on quality of government expenditure, and new growth opportunities stemming from global realignment of supply chains, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures," it said.
The government on Monday lowered the growth projection for the current financial year to 5.7-5.9 per cent from 7.6 per cent estimated earlier, while pitching for supportive monetary and fiscal policies to improve investor confidence.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to hold pre-budget consultations with industry chambers on June 20, sources said. The budget for 2024-25 fiscal is likely to be presented in Parliament in the second half of July. Industry sources said the pre-budget consultation with Sitharaman would be preceded by a meeting with Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on June 18.
In a significant policy shift aimed at boosting agri-productivity and rural prosperity, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday announced six new agricultural schemes while increasing the subsidised Kisan Credit Card loan limit to Rs 5 lakh from the existing Rs 3 lakh, benefiting 7.7 crore farmers, fishermen, and dairy farmers.
'2025 is the year to build a portfolio for the future. Focus this year should be on valuations and visible growth.'
'We are going to need more technical people in government.' 'You can't expect a generalist to understand the complicated world of financial engineering.' 'I regret to say that most of our politicians have no competence to deal with these things. Nor is there a willingness to learn.'
Now that the economy is growing at a higher-than-expected rate, it is time to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the Budget could be a good starting point, argues Rajesh Kumar.
Automobile dispatches from companies to dealers rose 12 per cent last year compared to 2023 on the back of positive consumer sentiments which aided robust demand for two-wheelers, industry body SIAM said on Tuesday. Total wholesales across categories rose to 2,54,98,763 units in 2024 against 228,39,130 units in 2023, a growth of 11.6 per cent.
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to positive from stable while retaining the rating at 'BBB-' on robust growth and improved quality of government expenditure. S&P said it could upgrade India's sovereign rating in the next 2 years if the country adopts a cautious fiscal and monetary policy that diminishes the government's elevated debt and interest burden while bolstering economic resilience.
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
'Investors can consider staying invested in long duration products as there is a possibility of rate cuts in the near term.' Positive macros - lower inflation, high forex reserves and favourable demand-supply dynamics for government bonds - make a strong case for rate cuts from December, says Devang Shah, head of fixed income, Axis Mutual Fund. In an interview with Abhishek Kumar in Mumbai, Shah says this view may not hold true if commodity prices go up sharply.
'For the past number of weeks, you and I have found ourselves at odds about the best path forward for Canada'
'Our attempt to honour the taxpayer has been since 2014 and more actively since 2019-2020 onwards.'
The government should frame new policies to assure growth.
Inflation to peak in the current quarter within tolerance band, moderating in the second half of next fiscal, says central bank.
Key lending rate (repo) raised by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent; 2nd increase in 5 weeks
India needs to create buffers for future economic downturns.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
'I am optimistic about the Budget because of the fiscal discipline the government has committed to.'
